Forecasting flood inundations on the rivers of Siberia using the example of forecasting the water level in the Iya River (Eastern Siberia) based on a multifactor regression model
Abstract
Forecasting flood inundations on the rivers of Siberia using the example of forecasting the water level in the Iya River (Eastern Siberia) based on a multifactor regression model
Incoming article date: 26.02.2024In the work, based on the previously constructed multifactor dynamic regression model of water level in the Iya River (Eastern Siberia), the authors forecast this indicator for June 2023 in three options: pessimistic, optimistic and neutral (base). A comparison of the forecasting results with the actual value of the water level confirmed the high adequacy of the model and good prospects for its future successful use to solve a wide range of applied and practical problems.
Keywords: regression model, river water level, lag time, seasonal variable, forecast, adequacy, criteria