Demographic substantiation of the need for urban development of facilities of the higher education system in the planning structure of Baghdad
Abstract
Demographic substantiation of the need for urban development of facilities of the higher education system in the planning structure of Baghdad
Incoming article date: 20.03.2023The ability of Baghdad's higher education facilities to accept new students is examined by conducting a predictive demographic study of the population of Baghdad. The number of first-year undergraduate students who will enter Baghdad's higher education institutions has been determined each year from the base year (2020) to the target year (2040). Official government statistics on university education and population were inventoried and analyzed, and it was found that the gap between existing and required higher education facilities in the target year is widening. This study is the basis for the development of methodologies and plans for the development of higher education facilities in Baghdad. Having carried out a demographic analysis of the population of Baghdad using the program (Spectrum) and according to indicators obtained from official population statistics. Students for each year to the target year was predicted by deriving a simple mathematical formula. Using official education statistics, the number of students who should be provided with additional higher education facilities was also calculated. Thus, by the target year, the need for additional higher education institutions in Baghdad was demonstrated. Since the number of students is rapidly increasing towards the target year, it is therefore necessary to develop a time-based methodology to solve the problem of providing higher education in Baghdad in accordance with the findings of this study.
Keywords: Facilities of higher education, demographic indicators, population forecasts, urban development, Baghdad, program (spectrum)