Application of Markov Chains for Modeling and Forecasting the Development of a Fire
Abstract
Application of Markov Chains for Modeling and Forecasting the Development of a Fire
Incoming article date: 10.03.2021The transition of a fire from one phase to another is represented by a change in the states of the Markov chain. The phases of free combustion, extinguishing and elimination of consequences are considered. The initial data for constructing a Markov model is a sample of observations of response time indicators. Recursive expressions are constructed for estimating the transition probability matrix of the Markov chain. The predictive capabilities of the constructed Markov model of the fire development process are illustrated.
Keywords: fire phase, Markov chain, transition probability matrix, termination probability, recurrent estimation, vector of initial probabilities, prediction