Currently, Internet of Things technologies are actively used in manufacturing enterprises for remote monitoring and preventive control of technological processes. The article is devoted to the development of an original mathematical model of the process of transmitting information packets and confirmations in the Industrial Internet of Things system, the use of which allows us to assess the probability of duplication of messages sent to the production process control center. To develop the model, the mathematical apparatus of probabilistic graphs was used, which makes it possible to take into account all possible states of the simulated process and the probabilities of transitions from one state to another. The results of computational experiments showed that the use of the developed model makes it possible to justify the choice of the maximum number of retransmissions, in which the probability of message duplication does not exceed the specified permissible values ​​at the current level of bit errors.

Keywords: industrial Internet of things, telemetry data, production process control, message duplication, retransmissions, bit error rate, sensor devices, server, probabilistic graph