In the article the analysis of conflictogenic potential of the North Caucasus as one of the most troubled regions of modern Russia is presented. It is shown that the inertial scenario of its development realized in modern Russia with relief local specifics is distinctly noticeable in social dynamics of the North Caucasus as well.

Keywords: conflictogenic potential, development scenario, social dynamics, troubled region, the North Caucasus.

The mathematical model formalizes the solution of a problem of optimum control and  the minimization of regional extremist system’s number (bandit underground) is meaningful taking into account the relative importance of its parts with the restrictions caused by "will" of the state to fight against extremism and the objective dynamics of the extremist groups number, defined by the ethno-and-sociocultural protest potential factors. The problem was solved by means of imitating modeling basing on scenarios method. The results of scenery modeling of republican bandit underground dynamics are obtained depending on different variants of the power influence, in conjunction with different options of republican community development. The results of modeling calculations on fixing of a range of scenarios of quantitative dynamics of separate groups layers of a republican bandit underground are given. The identification of modeling parameters according to scenarios is executed and interpretation of the received results and practical recommendations on optimization of combating regional terrorist underground is presented.

Keywords: Mathematical model, scenery modeling, extremism, bandit underground, dynamics of number of groups layers of extremists, problem region, North Caucasus.